ABSTRACT
There is no univocal standardized strategy to predict outcomes and stratify risk of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, notably in emergency departments. Our aim is to develop an accurate indicator of adverse outcomes based on a retrospective analysis of a COVID-19 database established at the Emergency Department (ED) of a North-Italian hospital during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Laboratory, clinical, psychosocial and functional characteristics including those obtained from the Braden Scale-a standardized scale to quantify the risk of pressure sores which takes into account aspects of sensory perception, activity, mobility and nutrition-from the records of 117 consecutive patients with swab-positive COVID-19 disease admitted to the Emergency Medicine ward between March 1, 2020 and April 15, 2020 were included in the analysis. Adverse outcomes included admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and in-hospital death. Among the parameters collected, the highest cutoff sensitivity and specificity scores to best predict adverse outcomes were displayed by lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) blood value at admission > 439 U/L, Horowitz Index (P/F Ratio) < 257 and Braden score < 18. The estimation power reached 93.6%. We named the assessment BLITZ (Braden-LDH-HorowITZ). Despite the retrospective and preliminary nature of the data, a multidimensional tool to assess overall functions, not chronological age, produced the highest prediction power for poor outcomes in relation to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Further analyses are now needed to establish meaningful correlations between ventilation therapies and multidimensional frailty as assessed by ad-hoc validated and standardized tools.